Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

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Dev
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Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Dev » Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:18 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197

This would be a useful source if you needed to predict tipping points.

I suspect that religion is a bit more stubborn than the findings would have you believe. The study doesn't look at why or how such trends change which is quite important. From what I gather this is nothing more than complex number crunching to produce a prediction that we can use against what actually happens.
Ygern
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Ygern » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:49 pm

You have good reason to be a bit skeptical. While I don't on the whole disagree with any of their conclusions - most Western nations are experiencing increasing secularity and decreased support for institutionalised religion, I don't think that guarantees that it that the trend will continue to its logical end.

Firstly, it doesn't account for people who may identify with religion for cultural reasons - many Catholics do in this country, for example, even though there almost never go to Church. It also doesn't account for people who retain a fascination for nebulous ideas like spirituality, dualism, deism and mysticism. These are all part of the same magical thinking category that religion falls into, just without the big institution attached. Small sects can be just as damaging to their members, just without the massive political and financial clout that the so-called mainstream religions enjoy.

Secondly, it doesn't (and can't) account for the fact that one or more religion(s) could suddenly grow in popularity for an as yet unknown reason.

But as a general rule, the more educated and prosperous a nation, the less religious they are.
The universe is huge and old, and rare things happen all the time ~ Lawrence Krauss
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oldrnwisr
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by oldrnwisr » Tue Mar 22, 2011 6:11 pm

Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says
Image

I don't think that a mathematical model was really necessary to divine that fact.

Still though, it makes for an interesting read.

Original paper:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1375

Analysis from PZ:

http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2011 ... erical.php
"Science doesn't know everything. Religion doesn't know anything." AronRa - WAC 2011
Beebub
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Beebub » Wed Mar 23, 2011 10:42 am

It's interesting alright. However, included in the nine 'secular' countries is Ireland. The national broadcaster airs The Angelus twice a day. A catholic prayer is said before each Dail sitting, judges and the President must swear an oath to God, blasphemy is now a criminal offense and 92% of state primary schools are run and tightly controlled by the Catholic Church. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for religious extinction just yet!
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Tulip1 » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:27 pm

Beebub wrote:It's interesting alright. However, included in the nine 'secular' countries is Ireland. The national broadcaster airs The Angelus twice a day. A catholic prayer is said before each Dail sitting, judges and the President must swear an oath to God, blasphemy is now a criminal offense and 92% of state primary schools are run and tightly controlled by the Catholic Church. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for religious extinction just yet!
And don't forget you can't be a teacher in these schools if you are not catholic.
Pope says atheists pick & choose their morals. Correct. Today I will be frowning on child abuse & not having a problem with homosexuality.
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Ygern » Wed Mar 23, 2011 9:09 pm

Yeah, but we're more secular than Saudi Arabia at least...

But seriously, Ireland of 2011 is very different from Ireland 1971. You can use birth control if you want it. You can get a divorce if you want it. Unwed mothers get support from the state, not a trip to Magdalene Laundry. There's even a group called Atheist Ireland now.
The universe is huge and old, and rare things happen all the time ~ Lawrence Krauss
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aZerogodist
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by aZerogodist » Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:14 am

Could Dawin's theory/(law) be applied to "The Origin of Religions", and that?? 99% of all religions that ever existed has gone extinct. Over time the dino-religions didn't go extinct but evolved into evangelicals who today deny that dino-religions ever existed.
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Re: Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

Post by Vae » Tue May 24, 2011 5:32 pm

aZerogodist wrote:Could Dawin's theory/(law) be applied to "The Origin of Religions", and that?? 99% of all religions that ever existed has gone extinct. Over time the dino-religions didn't go extinct but evolved into evangelicals who today deny that dino-religions ever existed.
Absolutely. Christianity and its sister religions Judaism and Islam exist today because they just so happen to be belief systems that are well-equipped to survive and be passed on in the minds of ordinary human beings. Heaven and hell, for example. This concept is present in many modern (well, modern's not a great word to use here) religions and belief systems, but is seen to be missing in many 'dino-religions'. The religions that adapted doctrines that shock people into believing in them are most likely to be believed.

But the most obvious indicator of the fact that Christianity survived this way is one of the biggest core doctrines: that a god wants you, above all else, to believe in it, and that you will be punished if you don't.
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